There is a fundamental disconnect between supply & demand in the Miami and Miami Beach condo markets. Inventory has steadily risen across market segments, all while transaction volume has dropped off. Higher price points are the worst offenders. The Miami $1M+ market saw a 147% increase in supply since 2013, while sales dropped 32% in the same period
Q2 2018 Miami Beach Condos: Records $3M+ Sales, Luxury Condos at 2013 Prices
Liquidity is coming back: first year-over-year increase in volume since 2013
Summary of findings:
The sales volume decline that began in 2013 appears to have ended in the second quarter of 2018. Higher transaction volume was driven by properties under $500K and over $3M, with the middle ground remaining weak. The second quarter saw a record number of $3M+ condo sales, as high-end properties began to trade at large discounts.
Premiere oceanfront property has intrinsic value, and there will always be buyers at realistic prices - it's now clear that the handful of 2015 and 2016 sales near $3000/sqft did not reflect intrinsic value, but the top of a hype cycle. As for who is buying now, US residents rather than foreign buyers are prominent, such as hedge fund managers moving from high-tax states. Cliff Asness of AQR Capital Management has made the most expensive purchase year-to-date, paying $26M for the penthouse at 321 Ocean. That property sold for 50% off of its original asking price.
Market snapshot: Miami Beach top 10 condo sales Q1 - Q1 2018
Average discount from original list price:
29.1%
Average days on market:
503
Miami Beach condo sales volume rose 9.8% from Q2 2017.
First break in transaction volume decline since 2013, due to increase in sub $500K and $3M+ sales.
First break in transaction volume decline since 2013.
Gains due to sales uptick in the $250K -$499K and $3M+ price ranges.
Average # sold per month, 2017: 375
Q2 2018 transaction volume is equivalent to Q2 2010.
Gains due to sales uptick in the $250K -$499K and $3M+ price ranges.
Average # sold per month, 2017: 375
Q2 2018 transaction volume is equivalent to Q2 2010.
Miami Beach Condo Market: Quarterly Sales Volume Through Q2 2018
Source: Miami MLS.
Median prices are trending down, are now well below 2007 highs
Average price spiked up do to record volume in the $3M+ price range.
Average prices are boosted by new construction, many existing buildings are trading below 2013 prices.
Average price spiked up do to record volume in the $3M+ price range.
Average prices are boosted by new construction, many existing buildings are trading below 2013 prices.
Miami Beach Condo Market: Quarterly Average & Median Prices Through Q2 2018
Source: Miami MLS.
The Average Asking Price For A Miami Beach Condo Drops To 2014 Levels As High-End Condos Sell At Steep Discounts.
The aggregate value of all actively listed properties dropped, indicating that high-end inventory is finding buyers as prices drop to pre 2014 levels.
Miami Beach Condos Average Asking Price | annual averages, 2018 through Q2
Source: Miami MLS.
Miami Beach Condos Aggregate Value Of All Listings. Charted monthly through June 30, 2018.
Source: Miami MLS.
High end condo inventory is starting to clear as prices adjust, middle is languishing.
Miami Beach Condos, $250K - $499K.
Miami Beach Condos $250K - $499K: Sales Volume
Source: Miami MLS.
Year-over-year: 21% increase in transaction volume.
Months of inventory, as of June 30, 2018: 17.7
Months of inventory, June 30th, 2017: 20.5
Months of inventory, as of June 30, 2018: 17.7
Months of inventory, June 30th, 2017: 20.5
Miami Beach Condos Active Listings: $250K - $499K. Charted monthly through June 30, 2018.
Source: Miami MLS.
Miami Beach Condos, $500K - $999K
Miami Beach Condos $500K - $999K: Sales Volume
Source: Miami MLS.
Year-over-year: 10.6% decrease in transaction volume.
Months of inventory, as of June 30, 2018: 23.9
Months of inventory, June 30th, 2017: 23.7
Months of inventory, as of June 30, 2018: 23.9
Months of inventory, June 30th, 2017: 23.7
Miami Beach Condos Active Listings: $500K - $999K. Charted monthly through June 30, 2018.
Source: Miami MLS.
Miami Beach Condos, $1M - $2.99M
Miami Beach Condos $1M - $2.99M: Sales Volume
Source: Miami MLS.
Year-over-year: 2% increase in transaction volume.
Months of inventory, as of June 30, 2018: 27.8
Months of inventory, June 30th, 2017: 28.5
Months of inventory, as of June 30, 2018: 27.8
Months of inventory, June 30th, 2017: 28.5
Miami Beach Condos Active Listings: $1M - $2.99M. Charted monthly through June 30, 2018.
Source: Miami MLS.
Miami Beach Condos $3M+: Records Transaction Volume Through Q2 2018
Luxury, waterfront inventory is starting to clear as prices per square foot dip below 2013. Oceanfront has intrinsic value, and this segment of the luxury market is outperforming mainland locations.
Miami Beach Condos $3M+: Sales Volume
Source: Miami MLS.
Year-over-year: 246% increase in transaction volume.
Months of inventory, as of June 30, 2018: 31.7
Months of inventory, June 30th, 2017: 56.3
Months of inventory, as of June 30, 2018: 31.7
Months of inventory, June 30th, 2017: 56.3
Miami Beach Condos Active Listings: $3M+. Charted monthly through June 30, 2018.
Source: Miami MLS.
Asking prices for luxury Miami Beach condos are dipping below 2013 levels.
Sales volume is starting to pick up as the market resets.
Miami Beach Condos $1M+ : average asking price of active listings.
Annual averages, 2018 is through Q2.
Annual averages, 2018 is through Q2.
Source: Miami MLS.
Miami-Dade Condos $1M+: sales volume.
Charted quarterly.
Charted quarterly.
Source: Miami MLS.
Case Study: Luxury Oceanfront Condo Buildings - uptick in sales as units sell at pre 2014 and pre 2013 prices.
Continuum South Tower, 100 South Pointe Drive, Miami Beach.
Average unit price 2018, through Q2: $4,843,056
Average unit price 2018, through Q2: $4,843,056
Source: Miami MLS.
Setai Residences, 101 20th Street, Miami Beach
Average unit price 2018, through Q2: $3,666,667
Average unit price 2018, through Q2: $3,666,667
Source: Miami MLS.
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