Trump won the election, what does that mean for South Florida & Miami real estate? Journalist Brian Bandel asked me that question the day after the election. And this is what I told the South Florida Business Journal: “Given the team that he has assembled, most notably Elon Musk, I believe that a Trump presidency will be aligned with entrepreneurs and creators,” Bozovic said. “Since South Florida is attracting tax payers and creators, our housing market will be further super charged by an administration that fosters entrepreneurship.” And I stand by every word of that. Furthermore, I feel that a subconscious pause has been lifted in the aftermath of the election. The next wave forward is about to commence. And note: I am compiling October numbers. As per my thesis, the SFH market continues to hit all time highs. End user product within proximity of the urban core is a strong play.
Macro Updates + Miami High end single family: best performing segment in August 2023
August numbers are in, and the prevailing trends remain strong:
1) For purposes of discussion, we have two markets: the very high and and everything else. --> August sales volume of SFH past $1K / SF was higher than last year, despite overall volume drops. (Contact me for on & off market opportunities & buildable lots)
2) Data quantifying macro trends pushing high value domestic migrants keeps coming in. It is my belief that forces pushing high net worth domestic migration are still in their infancy.
1) August Numbers: the high end continues to outperform
If we believe the thesis that Miami will continue to ascend (which I do), then the best residential play is this:
locking in land value aligned with scarcity via SFH plays within the proximity of the urban core.
Buying waterfront on Palm Island, Hibiscus Island, La Gorce Island, etc...is like buying near Central Park in NYC 80 years ago. I discussed this with my friend Karen Apsrea, in the visionaries section of Miami Deal Sheet >
And once again, the best performing market segment in August 2023 was the SFH past $1K SF segment:
The pattern holds tri-county. Product past $1K/ square foot caters to the domestic wealth & talent migration.
The pattern holds tri-county. Product past $1K/ square foot caters to the domestic wealth & talent migration.
2) Data quantifying macro trends pushing wealth and talent to South Florida keeps coming in
www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2023-asset-management-relocation-wall-street-south
This article quantifies the movement of investment firms with assets under management.
Both CA and NY lost close to $1 Trillion in assets, according to corporate filings.
And how remarkable is this:
"Connecticut, the hedge fund hub that’s long appealed to firms wanting to stay close to New York without being in the city, has now fallen behind Florida in assets under management."
The ramifications are staggering, both the negative and the positive.
NYC tax rev taking a tumble. The Latin American playbook will accelerate.
The Miami Herald asked me if I think buyers of homes, at or below the median resale price, should wait or buy now. The full article is here: https://www.miamiherald.com/news/business/real-estate-news/article278824969.html. and here is my video answer:
MiamiDealSheet.com - now live
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