Florida #1 for gaining high earning millennials & Miami cited by Knight Frank as the most transformative luxury real estate market, alongside Dubai & Palm Beach.
August 2024 Miami Real Estate numbers are in
August just closed out, so it is a great time to get ahead of main stream media and to report the real Miami & Miami Dade real estate numbers. Of late, there has been this tendency to conflate our reality with that of other cities. It is important to remember that the country is in a period of polarization & divergence, both of which are in their early days.
It is also important to recognize that most bubbles are built upon misuse of debt. This is not our current reality (quite the opposite, actually).
Download my full Q2 2024 Miami Real Estate Report
City of Miami Numbers: August 2024
SFH
Median price: $665,545
August 2023: $625,000
Year-over-year: +6.5%
August 2019: 370,250
We are currently +80% vs. pre Covid, 2019
Active listings, August 2024:
-28% versus pre Covid, August 2019
Condos
Median price: $433,000
August 2023: $420,000
Year-over-year: +3.1%
August 2019: 245,000
We are currently +77% vs. pre Covid, 2019
Active listings:
-32% versus pre Covid, August 2019
Miami Dade County Numbers: August 2024
SFH
Median price: $649,000
August 2023: $620,000
Year-over-year: +4.7%
August 2019: 365,000
We are currently +78% vs. pre Covid, 2019
Active listings, August 2024:
-33% versus pre Covid, August 2019
Condos
Median price: $413,750
August 2023: $419,990
Year-over-year: -1.5%
August 2019: 245,000
We are currently +72% vs. pre Covid, 2019
Active listings:
-31% versus pre Covid, August 2019
While inventory is certainly up year-over-year, we need to place this all within context of the rapid ascent post Covid and the rapid disappearance of inventory. It could not have continued at the same pace as it did in the immediate aftermath of a cataclysmic event.
The market, as a whole, is now finding its new footing and this is all very healthy.
While it is important to start with a general view of the overall market, from there we need to segment (as I keep saying). The portions of our market that are catering to the wealth & talent migration (and in many ways to societal wealth gap growth) are outperforming all other segments. These segments tend to be the high-per-square-foot ones.
On the topic of wealth polarization:
An article this week in Bloomberg entitled “Ultra-Rich Families Set to Control $9.5 Trillion by 2030, Deloitte Says” had the following to say:
“The wealth of ultra-rich families will likely swell to $9.5 trillion by 2030, according to estimates from consultancy Deloitte, as family offices grow and morph to rival hedge funds.
The figure would mark a 73% jump from the current $5.5 trillion controlled by people represented by family offices, according to the report. The number of investment firms for the wealthy is expected to grow by one-third over the same time period, to 10,720.”
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I am not making a qualitative statement on the above when I say: this trend will likely continue for the course of our adult lifetimes. And product that caters to the growing wealth gap and to the wealth & talent migration will continue to outperform the general market.
Granted this product is relatively niche, but we need to look no further than South Florida’s explosion of transactions past $1K / square foot to see it in action.
Two strategies come to mind given all of the above:
1) purchases aligned with inherent scarcity: prime single family
—> applies across the board for SFH: at the floor of the market (which is steadily rising) and at the upper niche.
2) new construction that is essentially SFH replacement, early pricing before it breaks ground
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I personally work with a select number of buyers every month.
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