Q3 2024 Miami Real Estate Report Preview

Q3 2024 has just closed out!
The data continues to trickle in. I will have my full Q3 report ready for you next week.

This evening I would like to share a preview of some of the initial findings.
Spoiler alert: the #LongMiami and South Florida thesis keeps playing out.

Segments successfully catering to the wealth & talent migration:
-> New product in prime location.
-> Throw in in inherent scarcity, and you get the phenomenon that is our high-end SFH market.

4 initial charts are below in this email. They cover these points:

1) Miami Dade median pricing – holding strong, SFH at all time highs
SFH hit all time highs, condos off highs but still up 1.2% YOY

Contrary to some doomsday headlines pertaining to the condo market, there is no precipitous drop in pricing. The doomsday headlines are not reflected in the data.

And as I keep saying: we can’t add more inventory vertically when it comes to SFH.
(more on that point below, the divergence from the general condo market is very real)

2) SFH inventory below $500K – continues to disappear
This is a real factor when it comes to affordability.
Active SFH below $500K are down 85% vs Sep 2019. They are basically disappearing. There are fewer than 600 when there used to be 3,700+.

3) SFH sales volume past $1K and $2K / square foot.
Q1 – Q3 Sales past $1K: up 812% vs 2019

4) Condos sales volume past $1K and $2K / square foot.
Q1 – Q3 Sales past $1K: up 193%% vs 2019
Note: these are resales. I will do a follow up study including preconstruction numbers, which will make this more in alignment with the SFH % change.
Remember, when it comes to condos: there is great demand for new product that is also SFH replacement.

===

1) Miami Dade median pricing – holding strong, SFH at all time highs

2) SFH inventory below $500K – continues to disappear
Sept 2024: 558 active listings
Sept 2019: 3,760
-85% vs. Sept 2019, per Covid

3) SFH sales volume past $1K and $2K / square foot.
Q1 – Q3 Sales past $1K: up 812% vs 2019

4) Condos sales volume past $1K and $2K / square foot.
Q1 – Q3 Sales past $1K: up 193%% vs 2019