Themes of the week: UBS “Bubble” Report • Rock The Market Highlights • Special Invitations. Thank you to the South Florida Business Journal for quoting me on this topic. The UBS "Bubble" report is a travesty and they should be embarrassed. This report a sensationalist misuse of a global platform, and its misleading headline is being echoed by press worldwide. * An invitation: Join me, I am speaking at the Real Deal Conference. 📍 Mana Wynwood | November 5 & 6 I am speaking on Nov 6 in a first-ever, special debate style panel with Daniel Kodsi. https://events.therealdeal.com/event/how-to-survive-the-squeeze * An invitation: Join me for my super fight at Main Character Jiu Jitsu 📍 La Scala De Miami Brickell | October 19 Tickets here, please select me at checkout: https://nitrotickets.com/event/1064/MCJJ-1HALLOWEEN-1HAVOC-1--11019
Q3 2024 Miami Real Estate Report Preview
Last week I published a detailed analysis & charts of all-cash buyer percentages throughout South Florida.
You can read that post here >
By popular demand, this week, I expanded upon this topic with a discussion of how one defines an asset bubble.
Download my full Q2 2024 Miami Real Estate Report
Q3 2024 has just closed out!
The data continues to trickle in. I will have my full Q3 report ready for you next week.
This evening I would like to share a preview of some of the initial findings.
Spoiler alert: the #LongMiami and South Florida thesis keeps playing out.
Segments successfully catering to the wealth & talent migration:
-> New product in prime location.
-> Throw in in inherent scarcity, and you get the phenomenon that is our high-end SFH market.
4 initial charts are below in this email. They cover these points:
1) Miami Dade median pricing – holding strong, SFH at all time highs
SFH hit all time highs, condos off highs but still up 1.2% YOY
Contrary to some doomsday headlines pertaining to the condo market, there is no precipitous drop in pricing. The doomsday headlines are not reflected in the data.
And as I keep saying: we can’t add more inventory vertically when it comes to SFH.
(more on that point below, the divergence from the general condo market is very real)
2) SFH inventory below $500K – continues to disappear
This is a real factor when it comes to affordability.
Active SFH below $500K are down 85% vs Sep 2019. They are basically disappearing. There are fewer than 600 when there used to be 3,700+.
3) SFH sales volume past $1K and $2K / square foot.
Q1 – Q3 Sales past $1K: up 812% vs 2019
4) Condos sales volume past $1K and $2K / square foot.
Q1 – Q3 Sales past $1K: up 193%% vs 2019
Note: these are resales. I will do a follow up study including preconstruction numbers, which will make this more in alignment with the SFH % change.
Remember, when it comes to condos: there is great demand for new product that is also SFH replacement.
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1) Miami Dade median pricing – holding strong, SFH at all time highs
2) SFH inventory below $500K – continues to disappear
Sept 2024: 558 active listings
Sept 2019: 3,760
-85% vs. Sept 2019, per Covid
3) SFH sales volume past $1K and $2K / square foot.
Q1 – Q3 Sales past $1K: up 812% vs 2019
4) Condos sales volume past $1K and $2K / square foot.
Q1 – Q3 Sales past $1K: up 193%% vs 2019
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