January has closed out in Miami. How are the markets behaving so far in 2025? The tail of two markets continues to play out. -> sales volume of both SFH & Condos past $2K / square foot are up year-over-year, clocking in record transaction volume for the month of January. In Jan 2019, there were ZERO SFH sales past $2K / sq ft. Things can change quickly. New product at prime locations (especially end user product) is likely in under supply. -> the extinction of SFH below $500K continues. Active listings (inventory) in Miami Dade < $500K in January 2025: 640. Active listings (inventory) in Miami Dade <$500K in January 2019: 4,452 We are down 86% vs. pre Covid in 2019. This is the extinction of a price point.
2023 Intrastate Migration Numbers Released by the Census: TX & FL winning
Given that the census figures just came out, this is a fitting time for this quote of mine recently in the Real Deal:
Ana Bozovic, broker and founder of Analytics Miam, saiid segments of the residential market that are
“catering to the wealth and talent migration,” such as the single family market, are outperforming everything else.
“This is all part of the ongoing polarization of wealth and belief systems I keep talking about and I don’t see it reversing.”
Article: https://therealdeal.com/miami/2024/10/20/the-weekly-dirt-south-florida-condo-market-weakens/
Download my full Q3 2024 Miami Real Estate Report
2023 Intrastate migration numbers are in, just released at census.gov.
Rather unsurprisingly, the post Covid trend continues. TX & Florida are once again #1 & #2 when it comes to net intrastate migration gains.
Scroll down to see the chart & exact numbers.
* Blue states, that tended to be high lock-down & are high-tax, keep losing population. (This is an observation, I am a registered independent). The top five population losers were all blue states.The two winners (TX & FL) have no state income tax. The two biggest two losers (CA & NY) have among the highest levels. I do not report on this with any personal joy, I grew up in NYC. It is what it is.
Actions speak. And I do not see this trend reversing. Meaning: I do not see a large reverse migration of tax payers into high tax states. And again, this is why Miami SFH sales past $1K and $2K per square foot are at all time highs.
Habits were broken during Covid, and life is reshaping (for some) around the capabilities of the internet. New 21st century epicenters and financial capitals are emerging.
* According to an Altrata report from earlier this year, the number of Ultra High Net Worth individuals in the US grew by 13% last year.
The wealth and talent migration is very real, as is America’s polarization of wealth & belief systems.
* Faena District Miami River announced, contact me for details
It it is the wealth & talent migration + the growth of wealth at the top that is fueling Miami’s prime, luxury markets. See below for a new release from Faena, as an example of a Miami project that is positioning itself to benefit from the continued action at the top and Miami’s continued ascension.
Faena District Miami River is Announced
Sales to begin at the end of this year.
Contact me for details.
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I personally work with a select number of buyers every month.
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