There is a fundamental disconnect between supply & demand in the Miami and Miami Beach condo markets. Inventory has steadily risen across market segments, all while transaction volume has dropped off. Higher price points are the worst offenders. The Miami $1M+ market saw a 147% increase in supply since 2013, while sales dropped 32% in the same period
Special Real Estate Report: Miami Condo Inventory
Miami Condo Inventory Is At All Time Highs:
Methodology:
All data from the Miami MLS. Rate of sales determined by a six month trailing volume average. Data does not include pre-construction inventory or pre-construction sales (except for the few that have been entered in the MLS). Data is through Dec 31st, 2017.
Purpose of special report & what this all means:
Months of condo inventory in Miami-Dade is at all time highs. At price points past $325K, months of inventory far exceeds the build during the previous market correction. At $1M+, citywide there is almost twice as much inventory as in 2010. The inventory buildup is not spread evenly; some neighborhoods have more than twice as much inventory as in 2010. Various neighborhoods are also seeing 100+ months of inventory starting at $1M asking prices. We know what happened to condo prices in Miami in the last cycle when there was a lesser inventory buildup. This is a market to closely watch.
At this time, there are almost twice as many months of inventory citywide as there were during the last market crash. Last time, it took prices 50% lower than where we are today to clear half as much inventory as we have today. Either a giant new wave of buyers finds an appetite at today's high prices, or prices will have to fall to bring in new buyers. Which seems more likely?
Months of Miami condo inventory, start of 2018 - Miami Beach & surrounding neighborhoods
The infographic shows the extent of the condo build up across various popular Miami neighborhoods. Neighborhoods include: Mid & North Beach, South Beach, South of 5th, Fisher Island, Edgewater, Downtown Miami, Brickell and Coconut Grove.
$200,000 - $325,000
Locally supported market segment, this is the only segment not at inventory all-time highs.
Miami is a divided market
Markets that depend on buyers from outside the area continue to suffer, while local buyers are still plentiful.
The condo market slowdown starts at about $325K. Price points below $325K are supported by local demand and transaction volume is at all-time highs. Local condo demand starts to wane significantly at prices lower than even $500K. At $500K we start to see a significant drop-off in transaction volume. Past $1M the lack of outside buyers is a major factor and there is currently 50 months of inventory.
$200K - $325K Miami condo price range -> the only segment with transaction volume growth.
Miami is experiencing steady population growth, and the $200K - $325K price range caters to local demand. All other price ranges are seeing steady decreases in transaction
volume. Read my Miami Condos State of the Market Report for a deeper look at the condo market.
Miami-Dade Condos $200,000 - $325,000: Months of Inventory
Source: Miami MLS.
Citywide, 2017 closed out with: 11 months of inventory.
Previous high, Nov 2010: 17 months.
Average # sold per month, 2017: 375
Average # active listings per month, 2017: 4,109
Previous high, Nov 2010: 17 months.
Average # sold per month, 2017: 375
Average # active listings per month, 2017: 4,109
Miami-Dade Condos Sales Volume: $200K - $325K. Charted annually through 2017.
Source: Miami MLS.
All Miami condo price points higher than $325K have record high months of inventory and steadily decreasing sales volume.
Months of Inventory: Miami Condos, $325,001 - $499,000.
Miami-Dade Condos $325,001 - $499,999: Months of Inventory
Source: Miami MLS.
Citywide, 2017 closed out with: 28 months of inventory.
Previous high, Nov 2010: 26 months of inventory.
Average # sold per month, 2017:148
Average # active listings per month, 2017: 3,872
Previous high, Nov 2010: 26 months of inventory.
Average # sold per month, 2017:148
Average # active listings per month, 2017: 3,872
Miami-Dade Condos Sales Volume: $325,001 - $499,999. Charted annually through 2017.
Source: Miami MLS.
Months of Inventory: Miami Condos, $500K - $999K.
Miami-Dade Condos $500K - $999K: Months of Inventory
Source: Miami MLS.
Citywide, 2017 closed out with: 40 months of inventory.
Previous high, Jan 2011: 26 months of inventory.
Average # sold per month, 2017: 104
Average # active listings per month, 2017: 3,667
Previous high, Jan 2011: 26 months of inventory.
Average # sold per month, 2017: 104
Average # active listings per month, 2017: 3,667
Miami-Dade Condos Sales Volume: $500K - $999K. Charted annually through 2017.
Source: Miami MLS.
Months of Inventory: Miami Condos, $1M - $2.99M.
Miami-Dade Condos $1M - $2.99M: Months of Inventory
Source: Miami MLS.
Citywide, 2017 closed out with: 51 months of inventory.
Previous high, Nov 2010: 32 months of inventory.
Average # sold per month, 2017: 49
Average # active listings per month, 2017: 2,146
Previous high, Nov 2010: 32 months of inventory.
Average # sold per month, 2017: 49
Average # active listings per month, 2017: 2,146
Miami-Dade Condos Sales Volume: $1M - $2.99M. Charted annually through 2017.
Source: Miami MLS.
Months of Inventory: Miami Condos, $3M+
Miami-Dade Condos $3M+: Months of Inventory
Source: Miami MLS.
Citywide, 2017 closed out with: 85 months of inventory.
Previous high, Jan 2011: 65 months of inventory.
Average # sold per month, 2017: 11
Average # active listings per month, 2017: 805
Previous high, Jan 2011: 65 months of inventory.
Average # sold per month, 2017: 11
Average # active listings per month, 2017: 805
Miami-Dade Condos Sales Volume: $3M+. Charted annually through 2017.
Source: Miami MLS.
We have just begun to see price reductions in the Miami condo market.
There is a steady increase in the discount rate and an unrelenting climb in active listings.
Miami-Dade Condos $1M+ : close price to original list price ratio
Source: Miami MLS.
Miami-Dade Condos $1M+ : number of active condo listings, charted monthly
Source: Miami MLS.
Contact me for: off-market hotel deals, land deals and hotel marketing.
I have one of the largest private databases on Miami hotel transactions.
Related Posts
Hello Ana.
I’m guessing you probably know who I am. If not, Google Jack McCabe real estate.
I just wanted to say hello, and that it might be a good idea for us to meet.
Jack
You funny Jack.LOL , what kind of comment is this man? Who are you , the president of Miami or something. Put your ass down and congrats the Anas hard work instead of showing of!!
Just saw this. I invite the young lady to meet as I’m impressed with her research and computer skills, and you find something negative about that?
Very impressive and thorough analysis. However, you failed to discuss one market segment : $325K to $500K. Please add me to your mailing list.
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