There is a fundamental disconnect between supply & demand in the Miami and Miami Beach condo markets. Inventory has steadily risen across market segments, all while transaction volume has dropped off. Higher price points are the worst offenders. The Miami $1M+ market saw a 147% increase in supply since 2013, while sales dropped 32% in the same period
Black swans, magic unicorns and fantasy land: the Miami condo market in 2020
The corona virus is exposing underlying fragility in the Miami condo market and in the general global economy. Ignoring risk is not a strategy with a limitless time horizon, and this cycle was in its last innings.
Opportunities ahead.
The video in this post covers my thoughts on the credit cycle, human nature, and how it all relates back to the real estate market.
Ana's comments, from the Analytics Miami 2020 Supply & Demand Report:
The Miami area condo market is not a magic unicorn that will defy supply and
demand fundamentals. There are fundamental disconnects in this market, and the high percentage of all
cash buyers may be delaying the clearing process. This market is vulnerable to an external trigger event.
Miami real estate market: unsustainable conditions were in place before the Corona virus.
Press References in Video
The "Magic Unicorn" reference is an expansion upon a quote I gave in this 2020 Miami real estate market forecast for the Real Deal.
The reference to "fantasy land" in the video can be found in this article I contributed to on the Sunny Isles condo market:
Contact me for opportunities in Miami real estate.
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