Weekly Insights

I made the table after downloading and processing newly released 2023 interstate census data.
Source: https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2024/state-to-state-migration-flows.html

The pattern is very clear.
High tax, blue states are losing population due to interstate migration.

And as I keep saying, I do not see this reversing.
I do not see a sudden net flow into high tax states.

The political leanings of the state seem to be correlated to the tax levels.

My study was picked up twice by the Daily Mail.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-14055047/US-map-fastest-growing-states-census-population.html

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/yourmoney/article-14198061/florida-arizona-cities-baby-boomers-travel-packs.html

The pattern is very clear.
As the country reshapes around 21st century realities and shift in economic focus continues, high tax states are clearly losing population.

Legacy media has dug its own grave.

Completely false headline again, accompanied by a very poorly written story.

The arrogance with which legacy media lies and creates poorly written, politically motivated hit pieces is breath taking.

And this is my second time refuting a Newsweek article.

I had previously debunked a Newsweek article in July, 2024.

Trump won the election, what does that mean for South Florida & Miami real estate?

Journalist Brian Bandel asked me that question the day after the election. And this is what I told the South Florida Business Journal:
“Given the team that he has assembled, most notably Elon Musk, I believe that a Trump presidency will be aligned with entrepreneurs and creators,” Bozovic said. “Since South Florida is attracting tax payers and creators, our housing market will be further super charged by an administration that fosters entrepreneurship.”

And I stand by every word of that. Furthermore, I feel that a subconscious pause has been lifted in the aftermath of the election. The next wave forward is about to commence.

And note: I am compiling October numbers. As per my thesis, the SFH market continues to hit all time highs. End user product within proximity of the urban core is a strong play.

2023 Intrastate migration numbers are in, just released at census.gov.
Rather unsurprisingly, the post Covid trend continues. TX & Florida are once again #1 & #2 when it comes to net intrastate migration gains. 

* Blue states, that tended to be high lock-down & are high-tax, keep losing population. (This is an observation, I am a registered independent). The top five population losers were all blue states.The two winners (TX & FL) have no state income tax. The two biggest two losers (CA & NY) have among the highest levels. I do not report on this with any personal joy, I grew up in NYC. It is what it is.

I released my official Q3 2024 Miami Dade report last week.

All of the Miami and South Florida numbers were fresh in mind.
I happened to come across an article in Business Insider that made the bold statement:

“Home-listing prices are down as much as 12% in boomtowns in Florida, Texas, and other popular states”

The article then lists Miami as #1, with a 12% drop in list prices.
This is absolutely not true. Not even close. This is honestly mind-blowing. 

I caught this because I am an expert in this field. And in all honestly, this makes me seriously wonder what else is completely false.

Officially live: Ana Bozovic’s Q3 2024 Miami Dade Real Estate report!
Segments catering to the wealth and talent migration continue to outperform pre Covid realities by a wide margin, with some segments at all time highs.

Ex: SFH past $1K /sq ft transacted at record levels Q1-Q3 of 2024. And most market segments above $500K saw YOY sales volume growth (all SFH segments and some condo). 

Actionable value is found when drilling down, but the macro drives the micro. We need to understand the basis of the market and the fundamental trends driving what we see in the numbers. Starting there, we can then drill down further in order to make predictions on specific sectors.

Q3 2024 has just closed out! The data continues to trickle in. I will have my full Q3 report ready for you next week. Today I would like to share a preview of some of the initial findings.

Spoiler alert: the #LongMiami and South Florida thesis keeps playing out.

Segments successfully catering to the wealth & talent migration:
-> New product in prime location.
-> Throw in in inherent scarcity, and you get the phenomenon that is our high-end SFH market.

Show Me The Money: A cash market is very unlikely to exhibit bubble-like behavior and it has a solid floor. The South Florida market is very heavy on cash. As data keeps coming in corroborating the South Florida & Miami story, various news outlets continue to publish unsubstantiated clickbait to the contrary. I have been seeing stories lately about “bubbles” and “froth”. The question bears asking: what is a bubble and how / why do they pop? Asset bubbles are almost always the result of irresponsible usage of easy debt. When the underlying assets can no longer support the debt, prices quickly collapse. And in retrospect, we define said phenomenon as a bubble bursting.

Florida #1 for gaining high earning millennials & Miami cited by Knight Frank as the most transformative luxury real estate market, alongside Dubai & Palm Beach.

August 2024 just closed out, so it is a great time to get ahead of main stream media and to report the real Miami & Miami Dade real estate numbers.

Miami news: 2M+ ft² of office coming to Brickell 💰 Coconut Grove SFH sales past $1K already up 2,200% vs 2019 full year data. Follow the money & the jobs.

Watch Ana Bozovic’s full 18 minute presentation at Rock The Market 2024, at the Hard Rock Hotel.

I am speaking at the same time day as this blog post: July 25, 2024. I will be speaking at the annual Rock The Market conference at the Hard Rock Hotel. We had well over 2,000 people attend last year, and this year is sold out again.

My topic at Rock The Market: #LongMiami & Early Times, Is There Still Room For Growth?

Short answer: the wealth migration has just begun and corroborative data keeps coming.
As I keep saying: momentum cycles are real and they build. There is no going backwards.

In the associated press this week:
“Florida’s population passes 23 million for the first time due to residents moving from other states” And it is tax payers on the move, flowing out of high tax jurisdictions that were also high lockdown.

I am speaking at the same time day as this blog post: July 25, 2024. I will be speaking at the annual Rock The Market conference at the Hard Rock Hotel. We had well over 2,000 people attend last year, and this year is sold out again.

My topic at Rock The Market: #LongMiami & Early Times, Is There Still Room For Growth?

Short answer: the wealth migration has just begun and corroborative data keeps coming.
As I keep saying: momentum cycles are real and they build. There is no going backwards.

In the associated press this week:
“Florida’s population passes 23 million for the first time due to residents moving from other states” And it is tax payers on the move, flowing out of high tax jurisdictions that were also high lockdown.

Recent events are very much in corroboration of internal disorder predictions I have been making for a few years. I have used a certain Venn diagram in every speaking even I have had since Covid 19.

It is a powerful illustration of the three baseline forces feeding the momentum cycles we see around us now. And these momentum cycles are shaping our markets. (most notably the polarization of wealth & belief systems, both of which are fueling domestic intrastate migration).

I have had full confidence getting behind a #LongMiami thesis because it was clear to me that we are in a period of rapid change. Three forces, throughout history, have ushered in periods of rapid change. They are:

– Transformative tech adoption.
– Wars
– natural empire cycles

The Newsweek headline reads: Miami Home Prices Plunging.

The article starts by saying that “prices of homes in Miami fell by more than 11 percent last month.
That statement is false and misrepresents Realtor.com data.

I have pulled pricing and listing price data for the city of Miami, for SFH and for Condos.

SFH median prices in May 2024 were up 10% YOY, and median listing prices were up 75%.
Condo median prices in May 2024 down 1% YOY, and median listing prices were up 18% YOY.